Crude oil spring jump, polyester and other guns!Polyester filament is chilly as weaving resumes
As the saying goes, when the cannon rings, oil is king!But the subtle twists and turns between Russia and Ukraine, let the market for this sound waiting for a little anxious, also let polyester market volatility.The price of oil twists and turns, polyester raw material callback more violent!In recent days, geopolitical conflicts resumed, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine once sent crude oil to the top of $100, but the event was twists and turns, the tension in Ukraine recently showed signs of easing, international crude oil futures prices fell, 16 domestic commodity market oil main contract closed down 1.44%.On February 15, Russia said that some of its troops had finished military exercises and started returning to their bases from the border with Ukraine.Affected by the drop in crude oil prices, on Wednesday, domestic oil series fuel oil, low sulfur fuel oil and aromatic series PTA, staple fiber futures prices weakened.By the close, fuel oil futures main 2205 contract fell 2.85%, low sulfur fuel oil main 2205 contract fell 3.67%, PTA main 2205 contract fell 3.46%, staple fiber main 2205 contract fell 2.92%.”Compared to other chemized varieties, the oil and aromatic products are more affected by the cost end, so the reaction is more obvious.”Dongwu Futures Research Institute researcher Ruan said.Nanhua futures energy analyst Dai Yifan analysis believes that PTA and short fiber recent trend fluctuations are mainly affected by two factors: one is the cost end of crude oil trend, the second is the resonance of the whole energy plate.Crude oil affects the cost of PTA, while PTA and ethylene glycol affect the cost of staple fiber.Crude oil prices recently political disturbances in Russia, Ukraine and the United States to raise interest rates more than expected, under the influence of macroeconomic factors such as small amplitude correction, is still high, if the crude oil cost calculation, cost of $1 a barrel of crude oil influence PTA 36 yuan/ton, callback 5 – $6 a barrel of crude oil, PTA callback 400 yuan/ton, staple callback 500 yuan/ton.In this wave of rise, PTA has increased by 24% and short fiber by 17%, which is the variety of energy chemical plate rising more, and the price difference between PX and PTA has been repaired to 240 yuan/ton, PTA processing fee is about 500 yuan/ton, the profit of the whole industry chain has been repaired than before, and the valuation is on the neutral high position.Therefore, in the case of crude oil callback and overall chemical decline, PTA and staple fiber callback are more severe.Market outbreak + lost cost end support, polyester filament fell!With the oil price and polyester raw material callback, the loss of cost resistance, polyester filament continued to rise power is not enough, local negotiations loose.The outbreak of the epidemic in Suzhou on February 15 affected the construction of Shengze Town, Wujiang District, as an important textile town in China.Now except in suzhou, jiangsu in other parts of the return to work was not affected, but jiangsu and zhejiang provinces reflect more weaving enterprise after few orders at home and abroad, of short duration to deliver the orders or production inventory, before and after the raw material polyester filament concussion opened higher, wait-and-see mood of weaving enterprises is aggravating, the original plan in succession after the fifteenth day of the return to work and production enterprise planning and production more time delay.In addition, most workers in weaving enterprises are migrant workers, and the return time of workers is an important factor affecting the start of weaving. According to Longzhong’s survey, most workers plan to return to work after the 15th day of the first lunar month, while some local workers have taken the lead in returning to work since the middle of the first lunar month, but due to the shortage of workers,The weaving industry is still operating at 3-4 percent, but in comparison, the Spring Festival holiday in many places has been significantly higher than the level of the same period last year.Generally speaking, on the one hand, the process of resuming work is slow due to the delayed return of workers to their posts; on the other hand, the terminal orders are not placed in bulk, the demand is sluggish, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises is not high. In the short term, the future market expectation of weaving enterprises is cautious and slightly pessimistic, so the bearish mood gradually increases.At present, the quotation of polyester filament is stable, and some discussions have shown signs of loosening. After the Holiday, the inventory of enterprises is mostly around January, and recently the production and sales data are also in the range of 3-5 percent. The inventory pressure of enterprises is further increased.Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the author.In order to respect intellectual property rights, chemical fiber state try to mark the source of each article, if you do not want to reprint or infringement, please inform us to delete.